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達裏奧最新采訪:中國是長期最佳資産之一

2018-12-10 . Tags: 行業咨詢

桥水基金创始人达里奥于接受彭博社“Masters in Business”节目的专访,期间谈到了他11月份出版的新书《Big Debt Crises》,关于债务危机的结构性相似性。


曆史已經證明,同樣的事情在相同的因果關系中一再發生。中美貿易戰從“修昔底德陷阱”的角度,好像是必然會發生的。


世界正處在一個去全球化和自給自足的過程中。達裏奧認爲,他並不擔心中國,認爲中國是長期投資的好地方。


下爲采訪爲文字節選。


修昔底德陷阱:

中美貿易戰好像是必然會發生的


主持人:考慮到這些事情是周期性的,它們會重複,看起來非常相似——你會從曆史和今天看到什麽平行之處?今天最讓你想起的是哪個時代?當前最有趣的方面是什麽?


達裏奧:最近一個類似的時期是30年代末。舉1937年爲例。我爲什麽這麽說呢?


與當時類似,由于印鈔和技術等原因,我們的政治兩極分化更加嚴重。我認爲這是一個非常重要的問題。政治上的兩極分化導致了世界各地的民粹主義。換句話說,當個人擁有極端權力,就控制了這種情況。以“民粹主義”這個詞爲例,在發達國家並不廣泛使用,直到你回到30年代,或者直到最近——當然,現在也很常見。


還有一個情況,我認爲非常相似,那就是我們有一個正在崛起的力量,那就是中國。


DALIO: Well, the most recent period that’s analogous of this is the late ’30s. Let’s say, if you take 1937. So why do I say that?


Similar to then, we have, because of the printing of money and because technologies and other reasons, we have a greater amount of polarity, political polarity. I think this is an important, important issue. And that political polarity causes Populism around the world. In other words, a strong individual to come in and get control of that situation, while they’re having that type of polarity — so the word “Populism” for example, in developed countries was not widely used until — you go back to the ’30s, until more recently — now it’s, of course, common.


Then also we have a situation, which is quite similar, I think, in we have a rising power in the form of China.


主持人:因爲在30年代,意大利、日本和德國都在崛起,挑戰現有的大國——如今不斷發展的中國與那個時代有多相似?


達裏奧:我認爲這不僅與那個時代類似,而且還有一個概念,叫做“修昔底德陷阱”。


DALIO: I think it’s not only analogous to that era, but there’s a concept — called “The Thucydides Trap” by the way.


(注:“修昔底德陷阱”,是指一個新崛起的大國必然要挑戰現存大國,而現存大國也必然會回應這種威脅,這樣戰爭變得不可避免。)


達裏奧:我現在已經非常非常仔細地研究了過去500年的曆史——你會發現,在過去500年裏,有16次,一個正在崛起的大國來挑戰一個現存的大國。就像你說的,德國在歐洲,日本在亞洲。這是野獸的本性。這意味著肯定存在競爭。因此,一場貿易戰—一股制造問題的實力相當的力量。


DALIO: I’ve made a point now to study history of the last 500 years very, very carefully — what you see is that in the last 500 years there have been 16 times where a power comes to challenge an existing power, a rising power. So like you say in Germany, within Europe or Japan within Asia, that was the nature of that beast. That means that there’s certainly rivalry. So a trade war — a comparable power that creates an issue.


達裏奧:我不是說我們要打一場槍戰。但我要說的是,曆史表明,戰爭結束後會有一個和平時期,因爲有一個主導力量。二戰後,美國不僅在經濟上強大,而且壟斷了核能。


因此,由于這種權力,聯合國在紐約,世界銀行和國際貨幣基金組織在華盛頓。曆史上看,崛起的力量挑戰現存的力量,就産生了沖突。我們正在步入一個新時代,任何人讀曆史和世界各地的決策者認識到這一點,這個問題與中國的上升意味著自然會有沖突,如何解決沖突的世界市場。


DALIO: I’m not saying we’re going to get into a shooting war. But I am saying that — the history that has shown that when you have wars, after a war you have a dominant power and you have periods of peace — because you have a dominant power. After World War II the United States was powerful, both economically and also it had a monopoly on nuclear power.


And so as a result of that power, you know, the United Nations is in New York, the World Bank and the IMF are in Washington, D.C. because it determined that. And in history, then when you have the rising power, to challenge the existing power, you have elements of conflict. I’m saying, I don’t want to overdo this, but I am saying that we are entering an era in which anybody who reads history and policy-makers around the world recognize this — that this issue with China rising means that there are naturally going to be conflicts and how do you resolve conflicts in a world market?


去全球化和自給自足


主持人:肯尼迪在書中提到,每一個大國都是通過超越國界的擴張而成爲世界強國的。您如何看待當前在美國、英國和其他地方似乎正在發生的去全球化?


達裏奧:我想你是在說兩件事。在某些情況下,全球化並非如此。比如中國的是一帶一路。我們在世界各地都看到來自中國的投資。這是全球化的一種方式。你將看到更多的人民幣貸款。你會看到世界上有更多的中國的銀行。


全球化的意思,是在一個地方生産,再以更有效的方式再其他地方銷售,沒有貿易壁壘,資本市場全球化,資本在國家間自由流動等等。


我認爲全球化已經達到頂峰。我們現在處在一個更加去全球化的環境中。因爲擔心這個能感知到威脅和沖突的環境,我認爲會産生一種去全球化的力量。


同樣,資本流動中也發生了同樣的情況。如果中國投資者更擔心發生沖突,那麽來自美國的投資就能受到更多限制,他們也不太願意在美國投資。


所以我認爲——我認爲我們正朝著去全球化和幾乎獨立的自給自足的方向發展。


DALIO: Well I think you’re talking about – there are two different things. In those cases it wasn’t so much the globalization. There was the globalization of those countries. Just like the globalization of China. We’re now seeing the one belt, one road; we’re seeing investments all around the world. That’s carrying that forward.


With that you will see more lending in renminbi. You will see more Chinese banks in the world and so on so forth and that will expand very, very analogist (ph).


Regarding globalization, which is the idea of producing at one place and selling at some place else in the most efficient way is that there’s not much trade barriers so that they can do or the globalization of capital markets, the free flow of money into and out of countries and all of that.


I think that that’s peaked and that we’re now in an environment in which we’ll go to a more of deglobalization kind of environment, and because of this somewhat threatening environment the perceived worry that you could have a conflict, I think that creates a force that reinforces the deglobalization, because let’s say if you’re going to produce something — if you’re producing things in China that we need in the United States by way of example, there might be a concern about doing that.


So if you’re producing PC’s you might say I need PC’s here, there might be a pressure to go deglobalization that sort of feeds on itself. I think that we’re seeing those kinds of pressures.


I think the same thing is true that could happen with capital flows. If Chinese investors are more concerned that you could have a conflict there could be more sanctions of investments in the United States. So they’re less inclined to invest in the United States and so on.


So those issues I think – I think we’re moving more towards deglobalization and almost independent self sufficiency is probably more of the direction.


中國是潛力股,適合長期投資


(來自觀衆的)問題:關于中國,我有兩個問題。第一個問題是,你認爲中國目前的債務如何?第二個問題是,鑒于中國已經開始增加經濟刺激力度,你是否會在這個時點增加投資?


達裏奧:中國的債務大多以本幣計價,外幣債務規模非常小。所以現在你提到的是一個內部問題。此外,向中國提供貸款的銀行也在他們的體系內。正如我所說的,通過某種方式擴散債務危機的能力相當大。


他們(中國)有專業知識,知道如何把它傳播出去。所以我認爲,當你觀察債務周期時,我知道有四個案例,美國如何發生重大債務危機,是什麽讓他們恐慌,他們如何能夠管理危機。


譬如,八十年代,1982年的債務危機中給大家上的一課就是,我錯誤地認爲我們有能力同時分散和降低利率。中國有這種能力。我認爲每個人都在關注這個問題;他們太關注這個問題了,而沒有關注他們的生産率增長以及他們如何在生産率增長方面做出改變。


我認爲,就整個生産力而言,低增長年份可能將是高增長年份的兩倍。如果你觀察一段時間的生産力指標--教育質量和基建質量等,就會發現生産力依然不高是有原因的。因此對我來說,這看來就像這些周期中的一個--即一個屬于他們版本的債務重組周期。


在經濟周期真正引發危機之前,中國在積極主動的采取行動。比如2008年的金融危機,我們經曆了危機,然後我們采取了積極的應對措施。所以我不擔心中國的債務危機,也不擔心中國的債務狀況,我相信中國是一個非常適合長期投資的地方。


我認爲中國必須成爲每個人投資組合的重要組成部分;它只是向外國投資者開放。這是一個不同的地方,所以你必須了解它,但我不會詳細說明我將在那裏進行哪些具體投資。


DALIO: Like I said, applying the template to China. Chinese debt is mostly in their local currency. The amount of foreign currency denominated debt for China is very small. OK so now you’re dealing mostly with an internal issue. Also the lenders to China are within their system and the, like I said, the capacity to handle a debt crisis by spreading it out in one way or another is quite large.


They have the expertise to know how to do that – to do that spreading it out. So I think when you look at debt cycles, there are four cases in which I know the United States defaulted — had major debt crisis and what rattled them all off and that they were able to be managed.


The lesson I gave, for example, of the 1980, ’82 debt crisis that I was so wrong about was the ability to spread that out and lower interest rates at the same time. China has that ability. I think everybody’s focused in on that and too focused in on that and they’re not focused in on their productivity growth and how they’re making changes in terms of that productivity growth.


I think like a bad year of growth will be probably twice as good as a good year of growth from us in terms of that whole productivity thing, and if you look at indicators of productivity over a period of time – quality of education, quality of infrastructure, things kinds of things. They have the reasons to continue to have not high productivity. So to me it looks like one of those cycles – their version of a cycle to do a debt restructuring and debt organization.


They’re doing it on a proactive basis before the cycle has actually caused the crisis. In most of the other cases like in our financial 2008 financial crisis, we had the crisis and then you have reactive that are doing proactive. So I’m very – I’m not worried about the debt crisis in China or the debt situation in China, and I believe it’s going to be a very good place for long term investing.


I think it has to be an important part of everybody’s portfolio; it’s just opening up to foreign investors. It’s a different kind of place so you have to get to know it, but I’m basically (INAUDIBLE). I won’t get into the particulars of what particular investments I would make there though.





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